Is AIDS really still an epidemic?

According to the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, there are 33.4 million people on the planet living with HIV, 31.3 million adults (15.7 million women) and 2.1 million children under 15 years. 1.7 million adults and 280,000 children died of HIV/AIDS in 2008, the latest year for which they have figures.

While some figures suggest that things are slowing down, 20% more people are living with AIDS than were in 2000, a number that translates into 3x the prevalence of AIDS in 1990. The critical factor to take into account is that treatments have improved significantly, so the lifespan of people infected with HIV has increased significantly. That's why epidemiologically the peak of the disease seems to have been in 1996 even though there are more infected people now than back then.

For a similar reason, HIV-related deaths appear to have peaked in 2004: it's about 10% lower for 2008 than 2004, according to the WHO and UNAIDS numbers. Still, if mama has HIV/AIDS, children can end up infected too. As the UNAIDS report explains (emphasis mine, not theirs):

An estimated 430 000 [240 000-610 000] new HIV infections occurred among children under the age of 15 in 2008. Most of these new infections are believed to stem from transmission in utero, during delivery or post-partum as a result of breastfeeding. The number of children newly infected with HIV in 2008 was roughly 18% lower than in 2001.

Don't get too comfortable, though, because the report also explains that HIV/AIDS is evolving in an alarming manner:

Epidemic patterns can change over time... national epidemics throughout the world are experiencing important transitions. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, epidemics that were once characterized primarily by transmission among injecting drug users are now increasingly characterized by significant sexual transmission, while in parts of Asia epidemics are becoming increasingly characterized by significant transmission among heterosexual couples.

One question that's suggested by this information is where is the epidemic actually the worst? They have data for that too: Sub-Saharan Africa and South and South-East Asia have the greatest number of cases of adults and children living with HIV/AIDS, 22.4 and 3.8 million, respectively. Still, you might be surprised that the Caribbean has 240,000 cases, North America has 1.4 million cases and Australia/New Zealand has over 50,000 cases reported.

I'm interested in South Africa and how it manages its population challenges (one reason I joined the South Africa Project) and hope you are too: it's a continent of amazing possibilities and crushing challenges both. Within Africa, the nations with the greatest HIV prevalence are Botswana, Lesotho, Swaziland, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Malawi.

As I write this, it's World Aids Day and also 191 days from when South Africa will be hosting the 2010 FIFA World Cup, the most popular sporting event in the world. There's a connection, and that's the core mission of Ubuntu Now, the group behind the South Africa Project.

Today's a good day to help, too, whatever day it is, and you can start by learning more about the South Africa Project and even become a fan on Facebook.